Michigan Season Review: A Look Back At Our Predictions

...would be ashamed.

They say hindsight is 20/20. To make the obvious joke, our Michigan Football Roundtable series showed foresight so poor it needed some JoePa glasses. Few Michigan fans were able to predict just how poor this season would turn out to be, but some of our predictions were comical, even though we didn't get our act together in time to post a final season record prediction. Judging by our other previews, it's a damn good thing we didn't try to pick the Wolverines' final record. That could've been embarassing.

Anyways, for the purpose of comic relief, here are our preseason roundtable predictions, in all their misguided glory:

Impact Freshman:

Joe and Webstarr: Darryl Stonum. Not a terrible choice, considering he finished with 14 catches for 176 yards and a touchdown. However, he was never a huge part of the offense, disappeared for long stretches (although that can be blamed on the general ineptitude of the passing offense), and showed a troubling propensity for dropping passes.

Sam: J.B. Fitzgerald. Finished with 8 tackles, and saw playing time almost exclusively on special teams.

Ace: Terrence Robinson. Damn, wrong pocket-sized slot receiver. Robinson took a redshirt after injuring his knee before the season. I did include this caveat:

[Note: If Odoms beats out Robinson as the designated slot guy/returner, just switch my vote to him. You can basically just swap "Odoms" for "Robinson" for that entire post and it would still ring true. I'm totally cheating, but you get the idea. Slot guy = big deal.]

However, this is called "hedging your bet" and is totally cheating.

The Actual Impact Freshman: Martavious Odoms.

Sam McGuffie showed early flashes of brilliance (mostly in the Notre Dame game) and finished second on the team in rushing (486 yards) but faded quickly down the stretch. Michael Shaw seemed to have a big impact any time he touched the ball (5.1 yards per carry), but that didn't happen very often (42 attempts in 10 games). Boubacar Cissoko saw the field sporadically, and traded decent plays (3 pass breakups, tied for second on the team) with coverage blunders one would expect out of a true freshman.

Ultimately, Odoms was the freshman with the biggest impact. He led the team with 49 catches, 443 receiving yards, and 1040 all-purpose yards, and the offense's ability to move the ball often relied on him to turn bubble screens into first downs. He also returned a punt 76 yards for a touchdown in the Purdue game. Yes, he had some major issues holding on to the ball on punt and kick returns, but it's hard to argue against him being the best freshman on the team this season.

Breakout Player:

Joe: Kevin Grady. Joe certainly went out on a limb here, and the gamble didn't really pay off. Grady was a seldom-used short-yardage back, carrying the ball 14 times for 33 yards and a touchdown. It is clear that he doesn't fit in to RichRod's offense.

Webstarr: Brandon Graham.

More on Graham later.

Sam: Stevie Brown. If this award went to the player who caused the most fans to "break out" their inner demons and do serious damage to property, people in the vicinity, and unfortunately placed pets, Brown would win in a landslide. However, we were looking for something different. From Stevie and Sam. Sorry, guys.

Ace: Carson Butler. Caught two passes all year, was in the coaches' doghouse for blowing assignments and punching opposing players, and eventually moved to defensive end. Epic fail on my part.

The Actual Breakout Player: Brandon Graham.

Went from a pass rush specialist (8.5 sacks in 2007, but only one other tackle for loss, and 3.5 of those sacks came against an incompetent Notre Dame line) to a full-fledged beast this season. Led the team with 10 sacks and 20 tackles for loss, had 46 total tackles and forced two fumbles. Despite facing constant double-teams, BG lived in the opponent's backfield. Graham was by far the best player on Michigan's defense, and was named second-team All-Big Ten by both the coaches and the media.

Team MVP:

Joe: Tim Jamison. Jamison had a solid season, with 5.5 sacks and 10.5 TFLs, but had nowhere near the impact of Graham.

Webstarr: Wasn't in the article, but knowing Noah the pick would have been BG. Too bad he didn't send me anything before the season. Children, this is why you shouldn't be lazy -- you lose the right to gloat if there's no proof you were right in the first place.

Sam: Morgan Trent. Sam made the argument that Trent was the most proven player on the roster in the preseason, and used this pick as evidence that Michigan was not going to be very good. The overall point was correct, but Trent actually seemed to regress this season after a solid 2007 campaign. He did intercept three passes, but nobody in the Wolverine secondary can escape the fact that as a whole they gave up way too many big plays to considered anything but a liability.

Ace: Carlos Brown. Oops. Brown was limited by variety of injuries throughout the season, and rushed for 122 yards on 29 attempts, all but six of which came against Northwestern in his lone game as the featured back. My visions of Brown as a 1000-yard back and part-time QB could not have been much further from reality.

The Actual Team MVP: Zoltan Mesko.

Yeah, I said it. Our punter is my pick for MVP this year, and only partly because I already named Graham as the breakout player of the year. Brandon Minor, who one could argue was the most valuable player on offense, only ran for 533 yards this season. The rest of the offense teetered somewhere between surprisingly mediocre and epic suck. Besides Graham, nobody on defense can claim that they performed consistently well this season. K.C. Lopata hit only two-thirds of his field goals this season, and blew an easy chance to tie the Toledo debacle.

Mesko, however, averaged 43 yards per punt, nailed 24 kicked inside the 20-yard line while kicking only three touchbacks, boomed 24 50+ yard punts, forced 21 fair catches, and was the biggest reason why Michigan spent much of the season as the top net punting team in the country (we're currently #5). Zoltan the Inconceivable was able to almost single-handedly change field position, and with the 111th ranked offense in the country, field position was at a premium. He was the lone Wolverine to garner first-team All-Big Ten honors.

That should really tell you all you need to know about this season.

Lil' Wayne Lyric:

Before the season, we all tried to choose the Lil' Wayne lyric that would best describe the season. I won't do the rundown, but all our quotes essentially talked about overcoming adversity to achieve great success. In the long term, this should be the case, and I certainly believe it will be. However, if you were to take a Weezy quote that summed up the general Michigan fan's reaction to this season, I would go with:

"And man I miss the times, we would shine, you would keep me on your side
You would teach me how to ride and you would teach me how to pry
Then we get on the line and go over our lines
We were in the same position and that's when you change positions, shit
I never change and I miss ya, and its strange but I never forget ya
say that ain't you in them pictures"
--Lil' Wayne, "I Miss My Dawgs"

Interpret that as you will. In two years, I expect the tune to be very different.

Michigan Football Roundtable: Lil' Wayne Edition

What does Lil' Wayne have to do with Michigan football? Nothing. However, the four proprietors of this blog all share a common love for Weezy, and therefore decided to describe our thoughts about the upcoming season using his lyrics. So throw on Tha Carter III (or II, or I), sit back, and see if any of this makes any sense at all.

Joe:

"Yes, I know the process has so much stress

But its the progress that feels the best
Cause i came from the projects straight to success
And your next, so try... they cant steal your pride its inside
Then find it and keep on grinding
Cause in every dark cloud there’s a silver lining"
-Tie My Hands (ft. Robin Thicke)

It seems right to break this down by individual verse, since it matches up so aptly with what Michigan is going through right now. Also, the “you” refers to RichRod.

“Yes, I know the process has so much stress”—The process of rebuilding a team from the ground up is indeed stressful, especially with the expectations placed upon you at U of M. All the uncertainty can cause a lot of stress.

“But it’s the progress that feels the best”—However, which each practice, and each win, your pride grows because you know that you made this team what it is and the progress they make is progress you inspired with hard work and passion and dedication. It feels good to see something you build make even the tiniest baby step in the right direction.

“Because I came from the projects straight to success”—This one doesn’t really mean anything. I think I’ll, uh…just skip…this one. Moving on.

“And your next—so try, they can’t steal your pride it’s inside”—This is perfect. I’m no longer talking to Rich but to Michigan fans all over: they can’t take your pride in your school when somebody predicts a 5th-place Big Ten finish. That pride is inside of you, and it will always be there. Even if we suck, we have to still have pride. It’s hard sometimes, but it can be done. Think Lions. Actually, don’t. Just, disregard that, that was terrible. That will never happen.

“Then find it and keep on grinding”—To the players: what we the fans need from you is for you to find that Michigan pride in you and grind away at the opposition. There’s a reason you chose this school, and many of you had the world as your oyster coming out of high school. I would think one of those reasons was being proud of who you played for, and proud when you say “I play for the University of Michigan.”

“Cause in every dark cloud there’s a silver lining”—The dark cloud, of course, is the departure of Lloyd Carr. To those who never liked Lloyd: eat it. He did so much for Michigan, including something the Bo couldn’t, and that’s win a national title. So shut up. Anyway, the silver lining is the influx of Rich Rodriguez’s new offense, Mike Barwis’ new intensity, and the many wins that are to follow.

I am optimistic for the season, despite the many obstacles facing the team. And that is what this song is all about: hope in the face of uncertainty and bad odds. Fuck the odds. Let’s get it.

Noah:

"My shoulders are strong,
I'll prove 'em wrong,
I ain't doin' nothin' but movin' on.
Let the truth be known..."
- Lil' Wayne, "Tie My Hands"

Ok, to explain why I think this quote is perfect for Michigan's upcoming football season, allow me to break it into parts.

First, "My shoulders are strong."This is great to describe Michigan for two reasons. The obvious one being that Mike Barwis has ensured that everybody's shoulders, as well as all of their other muscles, are strong. The number one reason I feel optimistic about this upcoming season is that our guys are going to be stronger and more explosive than they've ever been. Combine that with talent, which we always have, and people are going to be surprised.The other reason I like the idea of strong shoulders is because it speaks to Michigan's incredible tradition. Each time that comes along bears the weight of all of the teams before it. Expectations are always so high for us, especially within our own ranks, that sometimes I feel that must weigh on players and coaches. Lloyd left us with dignity, but not without people calling for his job. Now we have a team with nothing to lose, who SI puts among the worst in the Big Ten, and yet we're still fucking Michigan. That's strong shoulders right there.

"I'll prove 'em wrong."I don't think this needs much explaining. The haters are out in force this year, and for once they have some justification. Nevertheless, Michigan has an incredible tendency to do the complete opposite of what our preseason ranking suggests we should. In 1997, we came in something like 13th or 14th before going on to win the title. In 2005, also known as the year of infinte misery, we came in top 3 before going 7-5. The point is, this year we have a great opportunity to come in under the radar, and without the weight of unreasonable expectations. After what SI said about us this last week, it's clear we have a lot to prove, and the ingredients are there for us to bake SI a nice foot cake to shove in their mouths.

"I ain't doin' nothin' but movin' on."Meanwhile, amidst all the hoopla surrounding this major transition within the program, our players and coaches have been hard at work. While skeptics argue about how Rich Rod can make his spread offense work with Steven Threet or a freshman Justin Feagin at quarterback, Rich Rod has been sorting through his bounty of talented players to concoct an effective offense. While people wonder who our starting offensive lineman are going to be, Mike Barwis is busy making sure that whoever they might be they are going to be ridiculously strong. The point is that while we speculate on the new era, the new era is already under way. At the end of the season, it will have been just that: a season. Lloyd is out, Rich is in, and life goes on. Everytime I see or hear Rich Rod talk about the program, I can tell he understands that. Regardless of what happens this year, the program is moving on and, hopefully, moving forward.

"Let the truth be known..."

Sam Weiss:

"Cash money, Machiavelli, y'all ain't ready
Quick fast like Tom Petty, y'all just petty"
-Lil’ Wayne, “Bring it Back”

“Cash Money”

Four Million, paid to West Fucking Virginia for the right to steal their coach, strength coach, success, soul, and apparently a bunch of files, which Rod shredded along with all hope by taking Barwis and Magee and leaving Larry Coker Bill Stewart. 2.5 million of the four came from Michigan's coffers. Put differently, a Michigan alum who likes luxury boxes just lost 0.5% of his net worth. No one's crying over that—except maybe Justin Boren...but it doesn't take much.

“Machiavelli”

I love Lloyd Carr. I would want Lloyd Carr to baby-sit my child. Unless, of course, my child was on his way to 6’4”, having a cannon for an arm and running a 4.5. Rod would have the kid running wind sprints, tiny dumbbells in the crib, putting chocolate in the milk formula and having him recite lines from The Prince like kids in Saudi Arabia learn the Koran. If Barwis told Rod that the best kind of protein comes from cannibalism, I have no doubts that Rod would have my kid in the microwave before you could say ‘Human Rights Violation’

(Of course, if Barwis said baby fat made you buff, I’d become the Pied Piper of Ann Arbor; I’m already going through two gallons of chocolate milk a week, and I weigh less than what Terrance Taylor lost this off-season)

No one’s saying the guy isn’t ruthless. He’ll do anything to win. About damn time.

"Y'all ain't ready"

LSU 38-Ohio State 24
Illinois 28-Ohio State 21
Florida 41-14 Ohio State 14

While Ohio State's inability to win big games has been completely overblown, it's worth noting that they have only lost three games in the last two years and all three were to spread offenses. They can make all the 'Dick-Rod' jokes they want—Michigan fans made similar snarky jokes about Tressel. If they’re not afraid, they should be.

"Quick Fast like Tom Petty"

This should need no explanation. Speed is now the emphasis of conditioning, practice and recruiting. The team has already seen remarkable improvements on all fronts and Michigan should be racing around the field on both sides of the ball. For years, Michigan has underemphasized speed relative to other elite programs, like USC, LSU, and even Ohio State (who was no slower than LSU last year, just worse).

If I was feeling particularly audacious, I might even say that Michigan is nearing SEC Speed, with overall team quickness and conditioning approaching Mississippi State's, or dare I say, even Vanderbilt's.

(In fact, apparently Michigan's safeties were so impressed with the neck-speed Florida's safeties displayed while turning to watch Adrian Arrington and Mario Manningham run by them, that Barwis has them doing new specialized plyometric neck exercises which simulate getting into a car crash.)

"Y'all just Petty":

But more than the individual phrases, this line is relevant because it is simultaneously amazing and completely nonsensical. Is Tom Petty quick or fast? How does Weezy, who never left New Orleans until he was 16 and has spend the decade after in a promethazine-induced stupor, even know who Tom Petty is? I love the line, the sound of it, the rhythm of it, but if anyone wanted to start an argument on its merits, I’d be completely unable to defend it. I don’t know how it works, but it does.

As for Michigan: we have a egotistical and innovative head coach, a creative offensive coordinator, an emphasis on speed over size, a new stadium, three running quarterbacks on the roster by this time next year, new recruits from Florida but not from California and wearing Adidas jerseys. Needless to say, I’m confused. The program has changed more in the last eight months than it had in the previous forty years. I don’t understand it but I believe that it will work. I can’t defend it in an argument, and my hopes aren’t too high for this year (8-4), but I thoroughly believe.

“Don’t be surprised how da crown fit ‘em”

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

Ace:

I've been through it all,
the fails, the falls.
I'm like Niagara
but I got right back up like Viagra.
I am agriculture.
Swagger so mean, it might insult you.
Ha, I'm like an ultra vulture.
I fuck around and catapult ya.
Torch ya, thought ya parents taught ya.
You guys is chocha, I'm gone. Buenos Noches.
Flow, scorch ya. And I don't even write.
No, author. So, harder. So, smarter.
All about a dollar, like 4, quarters.
Oh, father. Will tonight be my last?
And if so, make sure my kids see my cash,
and I know, I'm solid like an elbow cast.
And my future will be better than my past.
-Lil' Wayne, "Love Me or Hate Me"

"I've been through it all,
the fails, the falls"

This works on two levels. First, as Michigan fans, we've been through it all (I know, we could have it way worse, but still). 2005...losing Bo and the Ohio State game back-to-back days in 2006...The Horror and Oregon...Les Miles to Michigan...the list goes on. Also, Rich Rodriguez has been through it all. He started coaching a terrible Glenville State team in 1990, when they finished 1-7-1, but he turned them into a NAIA powerhouse. His exit from West Virginia could only be described as tumultuous, as he received death threats from his own home state and had to go through a huge buyout fiasco while settling in at Michigan. At Michigan, we are familiar with fails and falls.

"I'm like Niagara,
but I got right back up like Viagra"

Last season, Michigan suffered horrific defeats against Appalachian State and Oregon (we'll politely call that a "Niagara" fall), but bounced right back and won 9 of their last 11 games, capped off by an upset victory against Florida. This season, Michigan looks to bounce back from the loss of their head coach (although this could be seen as a net gain) as well as eight offensive starters.

"I am agriculture"

Um, what? Let's move on.

"Swagger so mean, it might insult you.
Ha, I'm like an ultra vulture."

Despite the lack of media love, as well as the lowered expectations of their fan base, this team comes into the season with a swagger that was absent from recent Michigan teams. This team believes they're faster and stronger than anyone else, and have a chip on their shoulder that comes from being a Michigan team that SI believes will finish with a losing record.

"I fuck around and catapult ya.
Torch ya, thought ya parents taught ya.
You guys is chocha, I'm gone. Buenos Noches."

This team will be faaaaaaaast. Maybe not at the quarterback position (sorry Steven Threet), but everywhere else, speed is at a premium. Our defensive backfield features a guy who ran down Percy Harvin from behind (Morgan Trent), and our offense will showcase the speed of guys like Carlos Brown, Brandon Minor, Darryl Stonum, Sam McGuffie, Terrence Robinson, Michael Shaw, and others. While the offense may not be as prolific as it will be with an experienced quarterback and offensive line, there will be plays this season where defenses are left a little crispy.

"Flow, scorch ya. And I don't even write.
No, author. So, harder. So, smarter.
All about a dollar, like 4, quarters."

I find Lil' Wayne recording his songs without written lyrics quite comparable to Michigan running its offense often without the use of a huddle. It's a lot more impromptu, there's a decent chance you just screw yourself up, but it can also create tremendous results (remember, Biggie didn't write anything down either). When the offense clicks, consider us smarter and harder than our opponents. As for the dollar line, reference the picture of the great state of West Virginia somewhere above this post.

"Oh, father. Will tonight be my last?
And if so, make sure my kids see my cash,
and I know, I'm solid like an elbow cast.
And my future will be better than my past."

Lloyd's last night was essentially December 31st, 2007. After beating Florida the next day, and announcing his retirement, he opened up a new era in Michigan football history. He was a solid coach, no doubt about it, but I expect the future to be better than the past. RichRod will bring that cash to Lloyd's kids, with Big Ten titles, BCS bids, and an offense more exciting than anything Ann Arbor has ever seen. This season may be a rough one, but Michigan will be back where it should be, atop the Big Ten, when the dust settles.

Michigan Football Roundtable: Team MVP

Another new feature around here in anticipation of the Michigan football season. The Michigan Football Roundtable will feature me and a few friends (including new Ace of Sports bloggers Joe and Webstarr) talking about our expectations for this upcoming season. And yes, I do rock at Photoshop, thank you.

Today's question: Who will be the team's MVP this season?

Joe: I wish I could say the whole defensive line, but that’s a cop-out. The line is the most experienced unit coming back this year, and I think it will be the team’s strong point. I’m going with Tim Jamison. Jamison is a pretty safe pick because he’s experienced (fifth-year senior, played in 38 games) and accomplished (second on the team in tackles for loss last year, third in sacks). Also, Brandon Graham, the other end, is going to be the one getting double-teamed all year. This will leave room for Jamison to get in and do his thing. He is the most experienced player on the best unit on the team. I saved my ballsy pick for last week’s question.

Sam (aka Sweegor the Magnificent): Between the Barwis porn, the highlight videos of 5'7" guys making their high school opponents look silly, and the constant assurances that this team has absolutely, positively, unquestionably, and indubitably THE!!! MOST!!! TALENT!!! of any Rich-Rod assembled team in the history of man, Michigan fans occasionally forget that their team probably isn't going to be any good this year. One quick way to throw cold water on your Barwis-induced tumescence: remind yourself that Morgan Trent is the team's best player.

This is not so horrible of a thing. Trent has good height, quickness, and technique. His speed is so outrageous that when, last week, a newspaper reported that Morgan Trent ran a forty-yard dash in 4.13 seconds, other newspapers repeated the statistic (for a frame of reference, rifle bullets fly the forty in 4.14 seconds, so, yes, the stat is wrong). In one famous instance, he hawked Percy Harvin from behind in last year's Capital One Bowl, saving a touchdown. The Michigan defense subsequently kept the Gators out of the red zone, saving Michigan points and amounting to a huge momentum shift. (And all this despite being from the genetically inferior north. If Trent had gone to an SEC school and gotten some of that Southern Speed Mario Manningham and Charles Woodson so sorely lacked, that 4.13 would have been legit, and on a slow track.)

Trent has earned a lot of ire from the Michigan fan base for his lack of ball skills. Michigan fans don't see the excellent technique and speed he demonstrates during the first three seconds of the play, when the television camera's eye is on the quarterback. Instead, they only see him occasionally ruin his good position by poorly reacting to the ball as it, and the television cameras, arrive. He has improved drastically over the last two years in this area, even if much of Michigan's fan base hasn't noticed. To many, he will always be the sophomore who Anthony Gonzalez and then Dwayne Jarrett destroyed in the last two games of 2006. Well, right now, those two guys are in the NFL and Trent is in Ann Arbor developing into one of the top cornerbacks in the Big Ten.

But:

Morgan Trent is not a great player. There are certain instincts a corner needs to have to dominate a game, and it doesn't seem that Trent has them. He is also mediocre in run coverage, although more out of him being a slim player than any lack of effort. No one else on the roster is a great player either, at least not yet. Perhaps Brandon Graham, Steve Brown, Terrance Taylor or Greg Mathews will be one by the time Michigan steps foot in Columbus this November, but there's no reason to be confident that any one individual will. I could rant for a few more pages about each specific player, and my lack of confidence in him making the leap to superstardom, but I won't. Instead, I'll be grateful for a solid dependable player on a team with far too few of them. Morgan Trent may not be a superstar but he's currently Michigan's best player. Unless someone else develops unexpectedly into an All-American caliber player, he'll be Michigan's best player in January too (although Michigan probably won't be playing in January...close the Barwis video, step away from your computer, and take another look at the roster).

Ace: Even though he wasn't my choice for breakout player (I went with Carson Butler for that one) I actually think Carlos Brown will emerge as the team's MVP. Even though Brandon Minor is being penciled in as the starter in Michigan's crowded backfield (in large part due to Brown being injured during spring practice), I believe Brown will be the one who emerges as the back who gets the most carries this year, and he'll be the sparkplug that ignites a Michigan offense with a lot of inexperience in the passing game.

Brown, who came to Michigan as the #5 running back in his class (according to Rivals), showed flashed of his incredible promise when Mike Hart was injured last season. Over a three game stretch (Purdue, at Illinois, Minnesota) Brown ran for 311 yards on 51 carries (a very impressive 6.1 yards per carry) with four touchdowns.

(Touchdown run vs. Purdue last year. Carlos Brown is fast.)

The fact that Brown has been seeing practice snaps at quarterback during fall practice certainly doesn't hurt his chances of being the team's best player. If Justin Feagin doesn't emerge as a viable option for the designated zone read quarterback, Brown has a very good shot at getting his own package of plays in RichRod's offense. The ability of these plays to keep opposing defenses on their toes despite Michigan's lack of a mobile quarterback is paramount to the Wolverines' success this year.

If Brown can emerge as Michigan's number one back (a big if, but I'm confident it will happen) and provide a new dimension to the offense when he takes snaps at quarterback, I think he will be the team's most valuable player, in the true sense of the term. I fully expect the defense to be very solid this year, but the offense is a complete wild card. Carlos Brown is the wild card within that wild card. If he runs wild, Michigan could become the wild card in the Big Ten. I've completely lost myself, but hopefully you catch my drift.

Michigan Football Roundtable: Breakout Player

Another new feature around here in anticipation of the Michigan football season. The Michigan Football Roundtable will feature me and a few friends (including new Ace of Sports bloggers Joe and Webstarr) talking about our expectations for this upcoming season. And yes, I do rock at Photoshop, thank you.

Today's question: Which returning player will have a breakout season this year?

Joe: I’m employing the Dubya strategy here and going with my gut instead of my brain to make an important decision. My breakout player is Kevin Grady. I know he’s coming off a knee injury and I know he is the consensus third choice for the starting tailback spot behind Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown, but I still think he can do it.

Here is where I try to rationalize my irrational decision: This guy was still a five-star recruit, and he’s only three years removed from that. Everybody is sleeping on him after his injury, but he appears to be fine and any lingering effects can only be mental. Also, I think his DUI earlier this summer was a big wake-up call for him and he might be looking to prove that he’s no screw-up. I’ve got no numbers, no facts, just a feeling. I think there is a place in this offense for a back like him, people just haven’t realized how big it is yet. Call it a hunch.

By the way, Kevin’s brother Kelvin Grady, who as we all know is a PG on the basketball team, was hitting on my girlfriend over Facebook. Just wanted to put that out there. (ed. Sorry Joe, good luck in the hunt for a new girlfriend.)

Webstarr: Brandon Graham.

Last year, he was virtually absent the first two games of the season. That's all I will say about the first two games of last season. The next week, he comes back to the tune of 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble in our 38-0 shellacking of an admittedly atrocious Notre Dame team. Graham finished the season with 8.5 sacks. That was last year.

Mike Barwis stated in an interview with ESPN's Adam Rittenberg that Brandon Graham came into the season weighing 287 and benching 315. Barwis continues, "We cut him all the way down to [a weight of] 250 and then brought him back up to 269. At 269 today, he did 475 for two (repetitions) on the bench. That's pretty good."

I don't know what's more exciting about that statement; that B.G. can bench 475 pounds, or that such on achievement is only "pretty good" to Mike Barwis. If he's that much stronger, and that much lighter, there is no way he won?t also be quicker and more explosive.

In high school, B.G. was a 5 star inside linebacker whose Scout profile showed literally no weaknesses. As the player evaluation on said profile reads, Graham "always arrives to the football in a nasty mood." While that is certainly a great sign for his potential as an elite collegiate defensive end, it should be noted that in person he is extremely friendly (ed. Webstarr is a bartender at a popular student bar, and is in contact with a lot of players, so he's not just pulling this out of his ass). Some say he's cocky, but as Jadakiss once said, "I'm not cocky, I'm confident. So when you tell me I'm the best it's a compliment." That couldn't be more true about B.G.. He is confident, but the type of guy who doesn't take it for granted. Positivity off the field + Intensity on the field (in the presence of Mike Barwis) = one hell of a football player.

As far as making the biggest impact, if Brandon Graham can reach his true potential, he will command a lot of attention. That will resonate throughout the rest of our D-line, and thus through the rest of our defense. If our 2006 defense taught me anything, it's that a good defense starts with a disruptive pass rush. The fact that B.G. has such a positive attitude, as is evident in this video, and clearly the work ethic to match (as evidenced by his ability to control his weight and increase his strength) means that as long as he stays healthy, he will be a major factor. I look for him to have an absolutely monstrous year, and to be the guy people are talking about as our difference maker.

BG on the prowl (photo courtesy of the Michigan Daily)

Sam (aka Sweegor the Magnificent): Which returning player will have a breakout season next year?

As when discussing potentially influential freshmen, opportunity matters as much as ability. Several young players worth watching who are currently not receiving much attention (Ryan Van Bergen, Avery Horn, Troy Woolfolk) are unlikely candidates to start regardless of the strength of their summer camps, simply because they are behind more experienced players. Moreover, it's hard for me to be optimistic about any one offensive player's individual season given the complete lack of experience everywhere. I have some confidence in the combination of the scheme and the overall talent level, but very little in any individual except for the usual suspects (Greg Mathews, Brandon Minor).

The defense is where Michigan should be scary, at least a little bit. With two outstanding cornerbacks and four talented veterans returning on the defensive line, new defensive coordinator Scott Shafer should be able to let the safeties be aggressive. Examining Shafer's track record, this seems very likely. In 2006, under Shafer, Western Michigan led the nation in both sacks and interceptions. In 2007, under his tutelage, Stanford ranked 7th nationally in sacks, playing against teams far above their talent level (and even occasionally beating them, as they did to USC in the biggest upset of the 2007 season, intra-Division I or otherwise...OK, I'm still not over it.) These are only the latest indications that the defense under Shafer will be in permanent attack mode.

Quotes from Shafer upon his hiring:

"The philosophy of our defense is attack-oriented, attack and react. We want to be a defense that is multiple, that is always putting pressure and forcing the hand of the offense. We want to be a penetrating defense."

"We don't want to be a defense that sits back. We want to be a defense that creates turnovers and scores touchdowns. Lead the conference in sacks, interceptions and defensive scores. That's how it's always been everywhere I've coached and how it will be at Michigan."

If Michigan is going to be making plays, the free safety should be making his fair share. Steve Brown was born to play the role. A stud recruit and phenomenal athlete, Brown was arguably Michigan's best defensive player in Spring 2007. After disastrous performances against Appalachian State and Oregon, Brown was permanently benched in favor of less talented but more reliable veterans Brandent Englemon and Jamar Adams. Safety, like quarterback, its offensive equivalent, is the rare position which relies more on a vague sense of instinct than simple decision making between a small number of options. You can only learn by being on the field and young safeties tend to take their lumps, and take them hard. Well, Brown has already taken his lumps, is reportedly very pissed of about it, and once again has excelled in practice, causing one defensive coach to call him the best defensive back he has ever coached. This year, Steve Brown will be giving the lumps.

Ace: Carson Butler can be counted among the faction of players (also including Stevie Brown, Sam McGuffie, our entire defensive line, and all wide receivers under 64 pounds) that should be pleased with the regime change the Michigan program underwent this offseason. Butler, one of the perpetrators of the St. Patrick's Day Nerd Massacre, was in and out of Lloyd's doghouse during his first three seasons (including a post-massacre stint off the team). Now, he will be given a clean sheet with a new coaching staff, and will play in a new offensive system that should fit him perfectly.

"Hold your horses," you must be thinking. "West Virginia didn't throw a single pass to a tight end last year! How can Carson Butler possibly break out this season?"

First, you are a very educated reader. That is quite a good question, which just so happens to perfectly set up the rest of my post. Thank you. The answer comes from Rich Rodriguez, via MGoBlog's Brian Cook, who got this quote from RichRod at the Big Ten Media Day:

"You want to look for mismatches part of what we're experimenting with that with the tight ends. If they can prove to be a mismatch on the field we'll use them; if they can't, they won't."

Carson Butler is a 6'4", 247 pound mismatch waiting to happen. He will most likely end up spending most of his time in the slot, which frees him up from his greatest weakness: blocking (and we can all praise our own particular deity for that; Carson Butler cannot block a soul). The question for opposing defenses now is how to guard Butler. Put a linebacker on him, and Butler will have a field day running right by the poor sap on repeated 15-25 yard post routes. Safeties and corners, on the other hand, will have a rough time trying to match up with Butler's combination of size and speed.

Another thing going in Butler's favor (although not Michigan's) is the inexperience of the Wolverine quarterbacks. Young QB's tend to look for a big, consistent target and go to him a lot. Is Steven Threet going to be comfortable enough in the new offense to sit in the pocket, make three reads, and then hit Toney Clemons on a long-developing out route? Or will he just take a quick look to see if his first option is wide open and then look for the 6'4" guy wearing 85 in the winged helmet? My guess is the latter. If Justin Feagin is getting snaps, this effect should be even greater, as he'll have even less of an understanding of the offense and less confidence in his ability to make quality throws downfield.

Look for Butler to be massacring defensive backfields next season, instead of innocent Michigan students wandering through West Quad.

Michigan Football Roundtable: Impact Freshman

Another new feature around here in anticipation of the Michigan football season. The Michigan Football Roundtable will feature me and a few friends (including new Ace of Sports bloggers Joe and Webstarr) talking about our expectations for this upcoming season. And yes, I do rock at Photoshop, thank you.

First question: Which true freshman will have the biggest impact on the field this season?

Joe: Gotta be Darryl Stonum. The receivers are very suspect right now (along with quarterback and o-line, but oh well), and the guy has the ability to make an impact right away. And we'll need him.

Webstarr: Damn you, Joe. I'm going with Stonum too. Although I think McGuffie will experience the greatest impact when he tries to jump over a college safety's head, Stonum ("Stones"?) is going to be the biggest freshman difference maker. Don't forget that he came early so he's got a leg up on the other guys as far as getting up to speed. Plus, I like how Mallett might have had something to do with his coming here (he claims this, I promise), but nothing to do with his staying. As a general rule, not following Mallett is a positive. Also, there's more room for wideouts in the new system, obviously, so a freshman receiver is more likely to make an impact than a freshman running back, especially with our currently cluttered backfield.

Sam (aka Sweegor the Magnificent): Which true freshman will have the biggest impact on the season?

First, who won't: Despite astronomical hype, even Michigan homer and recruiting guru Josh Helmholdt argues that the Sam McGuffie he saw frontflipping over defenders at the Army All-American Game was not ready for an immediate impact. He is a remarkable athlete, like his teammate Michael Shaw, and a perfect fit for the spread, but neither is physically mature enough to beat out Carlos Brown, Brandon Minor, or even Kevin Grady, the former 5-Star who still possesses every tool except vision (though after seeing his mug shot, this begins to make a little more sense). The same complaint registers even stronger for rabbit chasers Roy Roundtree, Martavious Odoms and Terrence Robinson. Because such players (5'3", 125, 4.2, Hobbies include playing tag against squirrels) are new to Michigan fans, the fan base is being incredibly unrealistic about their potential for immediate impact. Little quick guys are like any other type of recruit: Only about half ever make an impact at all and those that do tend to make it in the third, fourth or fifth year in the program. We all have reason to be excited about our spanking new phalanx of punt returners (and they keep coming--welcome Jeremy Gallon), and the ways Rod will find to get them the ball, but it's unlikely that any of them individually will have a statistically impressive year.

If Dann O'Neill or Ricky Barnum get significant playing time, the most valuable freshman will be the student manager who has to keep carting Steven Threet and assorted back-ups off the field. They're offensive linemen; pray that they redshirt. BooBoo Cissoko is an enormously talented athlete but played against poor competition in high school and demonstrated his lack of technique while getting destroyed in the Army All-American Game. He'll be a stud eventually, but don't look for him to beat out Troy Woolfork this year. Darryl Stonum is a prototype outside wide out, but the position figures to play a smaller role than in past years and we already have Junior Hemingway and Greg Mathews at the position. Mike Martin is a future star but is playing behind two solid returning starters. Kevin Koger and Brandon Moore play a position that, as far as we know, no longer exists.

Justin Feagin is a logical choice, simply for the enormous need at the position. While he seems like a hard worker and a good kid, seeing anything more than a few plays a game with a dumbed-down playbook would be terrifying. True freshman quarterbacks rarely succeed and when they do, they're normally 5-Star Quarterbaclss like Chad Henne and not 3-Star Safeties like Feagin. I'll keep my expectations just above the floor until he proves me wrong.

There is one position with both a lack of experience and a wealth of incoming talent: Linebacker. Only Obi Ezeh returns as a starter--everyone else is a question mark. Marell Evans and Jonas Mouton are both talented and fast (players on the team raves about Evans and his speed anytime they're given the chance), and both should fit into the new attacking, blitzing defense. Given their lack of experience, however, we have to assume the competition will be open, and several players will get snaps at the SAM and the WILL. J.B. Fitzgerald is the best bet among the freshmen to push for playing time and eventually receive it. He has a college body already and is by all accounts a remarkable athlete. He may not end up starting but he should get plenty of snaps. While the 2008 class will eventually be remembered for beginning the transition to the spread, the most valuable true freshman of the 2008 season may very well be a nuts and bolts attacking outside linebacker, the kind of which we've seen at Michigan for the last decade.

(ed. I was going to edit down Sweegor's rant for the sake of symmetry, but that was too beautifully done. This guy really should have his own blog.)

Ace: 2008 may be the Year of the Rat in the Chinese Zodiac, but in Ann Arbor, it is the Year of the Rabbit-Chaser. While there will be a place in Michigan's offense for the traditional outside possession wideout, much more attention will be placed in the slot than years past. Rich Rodriguez likes to have a couple fast little buggers in the slot (think freshman Steve Breaston) who can turn a five-yard hitch into a 80-yard back-breaking touchdown. At West Virginia, Darius Reynaud was that fast little bugger. He was only 5'9" and looked like he should play running back, but finished his 3-year career at WVU ranked 5th in school history in receptions and 3rd in receiving touchdowns. A little Reynaud sampler:

Who is going to step in at Michigan and play that role? The Wolverines don't have any upperclassmen who have the speed or moves to play in the slot. Three freshmen have been brought in who will have the chance to play there: Martavious Odoms, Michael Shaw, and Terrence Robinson. Shaw, who played running back in high school, is caught in the unfortunate position of being caught in a logjam at RB, while not being the prototypical slot guy Odoms and Robinson are. Out of Odoms and Robinson, I expect Robinson to be the player who emerges as Michigan's starting slot receiver, and will soon be the recipient of countless WR screens, reverses, and two-yards crossing routes designed to get him in space. I also expect to see him in the mix at kick returner, a role that has been filled by a bunch of players who couldn't break their way out of a glass house since Breaston graduated.

Why do we want Terrence Robinson in space? This is why (Robinson is #7 in white):

The kid is incredibly fast, can catch the ball, and has the ability to juke while running nearly full speed. Yes, he is quite small (5'9", 170 lbs.) but if Rich Rodriguez has proven anything in his coaching career, it is that you can't hit what you can't catch. For those who don't remember, Steve Breaston also played quarterback in high school, and was so paper-thin fans worried he would snap in half when hit squarely, and he was able to transition pretty well into playing the slot and being a dynamite kick returner. I fully expect Robinson to have the same kind of impact next season. He is Darius Reynaud minus the power, but with more speed and moves. If Rodriguez could turn Reynaud, who went undrafted in 2008, into a receiving weapon at West Virginia, he should certainly be able to turn Robinson into an absolute terror in the slot this year.

[Note: If Odoms beats out Robinson as the designated slot guy/returner, just switch my vote to him. You can basically just swap "Odoms" for "Robinson" for that entire post and it would still ring true. I'm totally cheating, but you get the idea. Slot guy = big deal.]

Stay tuned for our next edition, when we figure out how much everyone should write (I'm guessing somewhere between Joe [haiku] and Sam [War and Peace]). Also, we'll be taking our stabs at which returning player will have a breakout season this year.